Week 2 Preview

Think of the preseason as a prior distribution; it’s still in there but not weighted as heavily as last week. The basic idea is rather simple; some would say rather simplistic: teams that play strong opponents, score lots of points, and allow very few will be rated highly in logits. Because we are using the log ratio of points for to points against, it really likes strong defenses. We pay no attention to home versus away, injury reports, weather forecasts, or police blotters; just points scored and points allowed and against whom. I don’t even know what a blotter is.

Here’s what you need to know to ravage the next office pool; or at least to not do anything really dumb. It may be really dumb on my part, but the Vikings, Broncos, Ravens, and Cardinals by three touchdowns. Big spreads are dangerous because one team or the other may forget to play the fourth quarter.

Visitor Home Probability of Visitor Win V Rnk H Rnk Logit Visitor Logit Home
Pittsburgh Baltimore 0.22 31 6 -0.76 0.49
Miami Buffalo 0.66 24 32 -0.27 -0.94
Jacksonville Washington 0.38 27 13 -0.41 0.06
Dallas Tennessee 0.31 30 10 -0.67 0.12
Arizona NY Giants 0.79 3 25 1.05 -0.29
New England Minnesota 0.18 20 1 -0.25 1.24
New Orleans Cleveland 0.56 15 23 -0.01 -0.26
Atlanta Cincinnati 0.31 19 5 -0.25 0.56
Detroit Carolina 0.68 8 26 0.39 -0.38
St. Louis Tampa Bay 0.62 17 29 -0.20 -0.67
Seattle San Diego 0.69 4 12 0.88 0.07
Houston Oakland 0.42 11 9 0.08 0.39
NY Jets Green Bay 0.36 16 7 -0.13 0.45
Kansas City Denver 0.21 22 2 -0.26 1.06
Chicago San Francisco 0.39 28 18 -0.65 -0.22
Philadelphia Indianapolis
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