I have now reached the level of chimpanzees throwing darts. Three of the four teams that I gave three touchdown spreads won but none beat the spread but I sort of predicted that. The fourth was Minnesota and that’s been talked about enough but even I don’t think any one player would account for a 44 point swing.
Week 3 should be the last week that the preseason has any weight at all but in the meantime, the matrix of coefficients is still singular without it. And here’s what I thought last week and what happened on the field.
|Visitor||Home||Probability of Visitor Win||V Pts||H Pts||Logit Visitor||Logit Home|
|St. Louis||Tampa Bay||0.62||19||17||-0.20||-0.67|
|NY Jets||Green Bay||0.36||24||31||-0.13||0.45|