Week 2 Postview

I have now reached the level of chimpanzees throwing darts. Three of the four teams that I gave three touchdown spreads won but none beat the spread but I sort of predicted that. The fourth was Minnesota and that’s been talked about enough but even I don’t think any one player would account for a 44 point swing.

Week 3 should be the last week that the preseason has any weight at all but in the meantime, the matrix of coefficients is still singular without it. And here’s what I thought last week and what happened on the field.

Visitor Home Probability of Visitor Win V Pts H Pts Logit Visitor Logit Home
Pittsburgh Baltimore 0.22 6 26 -0.76 0.49
Miami Buffalo 0.66 10 29 -0.27 -0.94
Jacksonville Washington 0.38 10 41 -0.41 0.06
Dallas Tennessee 0.31 26 10 -0.67 0.12
Arizona NY Giants 0.79 25 14 1.05 -0.29
New England Minnesota 0.18 30 7 -0.25 1.24
New Orleans Cleveland 0.56 24 26 -0.01 -0.26
Atlanta Cincinnati 0.31 10 24 -0.25 0.56
Detroit Carolina 0.68 7 24 0.39 -0.38
St. Louis Tampa Bay 0.62 19 17 -0.20 -0.67
Seattle San Diego 0.69 21 30 0.88 0.07
Houston Oakland 0.42 30 14 0.08 0.39
NY Jets Green Bay 0.36 24 31 -0.13 0.45
Kansas City Denver 0.21 17 24 -0.26 1.06
Chicago San Francisco 0.39 28 20 -0.65 -0.22
Philadelphia Indianapolis 0.57 30 27 0.03 -0.26
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