Week 3 Postview

It was another 50% week, but now I have gotten the preseason out of my system.

This little experiment has now established definitively that the preseason means nothing. The correlation between the four preseason games and the first three weeks of the regular season is 0.08 with a standard error of 0.16, which of course means the correlation is not statistically different from zero.

My two Super Bowl teams based on the Preseason, Denver and Minnesota, have been advancing steadily toward mediocrity.

Visitor Home Probability of Visitor Win V Pts H Pts Logit Visitor Logit Home
Tampa Bay Atlanta 0.48 14 56 -0.47 -0.39
SUN, SEP 21
San Diego Buffalo 0.68 22 10 0.18 -0.56
Dallas St. Louis 0.48 34 31 -0.47 -0.40
Washington Philadelphia 0.56 34 37 0.38 0.15
Houston NY Giants 0.56 17 30 0.16 -0.07
Minnesota New Orleans 0.69 9 20 0.63 -0.16
Tennessee Cincinnati 0.29 7 33 -0.33 0.54
Baltimore Cleveland 0.69 23 21 0.61 -0.19
Green Bay Detroit 0.501 7 19 0.183 0.181
Indianapolis Jacksonville 0.57 44 17 -0.22 -0.49
Oakland New England 0.42 9 16 0.00 0.31
San Francisco Arizona 0.25 14 23 -0.27 0.86
Denver Seattle 0.57 20 26 0.90 0.62
Kansas City Miami 0.53 34 15 -0.26 -0.39
Pittsburgh Carolina 0.33 37 19 -0.55 0.14
MON, SEP 22
Chicago NY Jets 0.41 27 19 -0.49 -0.13
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